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When tallying, cap the expected win rate at 1:1M #57

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Jan 13, 2024
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When tallying, cap the expected win rate at 1:1M #57

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4 changes: 3 additions & 1 deletion analysis/util/TallyGameAnalytics.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -99,7 +99,9 @@ def add_glicko2_analytics(self, result: Glicko2Analytics) -> None:
if result.expected_win_rate > 0.5
else (not black_won if result.expected_win_rate < 0.5 else 0.5)
)
self.prediction_cost[size][speed][rank][handicap] += - math.log(result.expected_win_rate if black_won else 1 - result.expected_win_rate)
# Cap the expected win rate at 1 in 1M to avoid MathDomain errors.
capped_win_rate = max(min(result.expected_win_rate, 0.999999), 0.000001)
self.prediction_cost[size][speed][rank][handicap] += - math.log(capped_win_rate if black_won else 1 - capped_win_rate)
self.count[size][speed][rank][handicap] += 1

def add_gor_analytics(self, result: GorAnalytics) -> None:
Expand Down