GAM and decision rules output of marine species selected for PRA

[damianooldoni]

From e-mail of Thomas Verleye:

We have pre-selected 5 species for PRA based on initial data availability and trends in occurrences (when we’ll face additional bottlenecks regarding data availability or expert identification we might reduce this number during the coming weeks, tbc):

1. Crepidula fornicata (gastropod)
2. Mnemiopsis leidyi (Ctenophora)
3. Ensis leei (bivalve)
4. Hemigrapsus takanoi (Crustacea)
5. Magalana (Crassostrea) gigas (bivalve)

@damianooldoni: would it be possible to create a GAM for C. fornicata & M. Leidyi? Thanks in advance!

[damianooldoni]

This is what we can say about the emerging status for these species:

species	taxonKey	status
Crepidula fornicata	5192789	introduced before 1950 : removed from analysis.
Mnemiopsis leidyi	2501248	emerging status via decision rules (no enough data for GAM). Ranking via hierarchical strategy: 68th place. Ranking via point strategy: 187th place. All indicators classify it as emerging in 2018 and as unclear in 2017. In 2016 from unclear to emerging depending on the indicator.
Ensis leei	8485639	GAM applied. Very low ranking as all partial indicators assess its emerging status as unclear. GAM graphs corrected by baseline: observations in BE, observations in Natura2000 areas, occupancy in BE, occupancy in Natura2000 areas.
Hemigrapsus takanoi	4382841	Via GAM: occupancy in BE and observations in BE both NOT emerging. Not enough data for applying GAM on observation and occupancy in Natura2000 area. Decision rules applied. Both observations and occupancy: potentially emerging in 2018 and 2016, unclear in 2017. So, very low ranking with both ranking strategies.
Magalana gigas	7820753	GAM applied to all 4 indicators. Emerging in 2018, 2017, 2016 regards to occurrences in Natura2000 areas. But unclear for occurrences in all BE and occupancy both in Natura2000 areas and in all BE.

To do: improve GAM plots (as we correct at class level, the GAM curve doesn' necesarily follows the real points, so we have to make different subplots. See #72) and rerun with updated occurrence cube, although dramatic changes should not occur.

[damianooldoni]

This issue can be closed. The "to-do" has been done except for #72 which I leave open, of course.