naive.py

"""
Trivial baselines

"""

import numpy as np


def random_baseline(task_instance, n_samples=50):
    """
    A baseline is just some callable that receives a task instance and returns a prediction.

    """
    # This is valid for forecasts of shape [samples, time dimension, number of variables]
    return np.random.rand(
        n_samples,
        task_instance.future_time.shape[0],
        1,  # For now, just univariate output of 1 variable
    )


random_baseline.__version__ = "0.0.1"  # Modification will trigger re-caching


def oracle_baseline(task_instance, n_samples=50):
    """
    A perfect baseline that looks at the future and returns it in multiple copies with a tiny jitter (like perfect samples)

    """
    # This is valid for forecasts of shape [samples, time dimension, number of variables]
    target = (
        task_instance.future_time.to_numpy()
    )  # [time dimension, number of variables]
    return (
        target[None, :, :]
        + np.random.rand(n_samples, target.shape[0], 1)
        * 1e-6  # For now, just univariate output of 1 variable
    )


oracle_baseline.__version__ = "0.0.1"  # Modification will trigger re-caching